Keohane Nye Globalization What's new What's not (And so what), stosunki miedzynarodowe, polityka, EU, keohane r, nye ...

[ Pobierz całość w formacie PDF ]
Document
Globalization: What's new? What's not? (And so what?)
Foreign Policy
; Washington; Spring 2000;
Robert O Keohane
;
Joseph S Nye Jr
;
Issue:
118
Start Page:
104-119
ISSN:
00157228
Subject Terms:
Globalization
Abstract:
More than twenty years before "globalization" became a buzzword, Keohane and Nye shed new
light on transnational relations and the intensification of cross-border interactions in their seminal
book "Power and Interdependence." Now, they take another look at the interdependent world
around them and discover what a difference twenty years has made.
Full Text:
Copyright Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Spring 2000
Globalization" emerged as a buzzword in the 1990s, just as "interdependence" did in the 1970s, but the
phenomena it refers to are not entirely new. Our characterization of interdependence more than 20 years ago
now applies to globalization at the turn of the millennium: "This vague phrase expresses a poorly understood
but widespread feeling that the very nature of world politics is changing." Some skeptics believe such terms
are beyond redemption for analytic use. Yet the public understands the image of the globe, and the new word
conveys an increased sense of vulnerability to distant causes. For example, as helicopters fumigated New
York City in 1999 to eradicate a lethal new virus, the press announced that the pathogen might have arrived in
the bloodstream of a traveler, in a bird smuggled through customs, or in a mosquito that had flown into a jet.
Fears of "bioinvasion" led some environmental groups to call for a reduction in global trade and travel.
Like all popular concepts meant to cover a variety of phenomena, both "interdependence" and "globalization"
have many meanings. To understand what people are talking about when they use the terms and to make them
useful for analysis, we must begin by asking whether interdependence and globalization are simply two words
for the same thing, or whether there is something new going on.
THE DIMENSIONS OF GLOBALISM
The two words are not exactly parallel, Interdependence refers to a condition, a state of affairs. It can
increase, as it has been doing on most dimensions since the end of World War II; or it can decline, as it did, at
least in economic terms, during the Great Depression of the 1930s. Globalization implies that something is
increasing: There is more of it. Hence, our definitions start not with globalization but with "globalism," a
condition that can increase or decrease.
Globalism is a state of the world involving networks of interdependence at multicontinental distances. The
linkages occur through flows and influences of capital and goods, information and ideas, and people and
forces, as well as environmentally and biologically relevant substances (such as acid rain or pathogens).
Globalization and deglobalization refer to the increase or decline of globalism.
Interdependence refers to situations characterized by reciprocal effects among countries or among actors in
different countries. Hence, globalism is a type of interdependence, but with two special characteristics. First,
globalism refers to networks of connections (multiple relationships), not to single linkages. We would refer to
Page 1 of 10
Document
economic or military interdependence between the United States and Japan, but not to globalism between the
United States and Japan. U.S.-Japanese interdependence is part of contemporary globalism, but is not by
itself globalism.
Second, for a network of relationships to be considered "global," it must include multicontinental distances, not
simply regional networks. Distance is a continuous variable, ranging from adjacency (between, say, the United
States and Canada) to opposite sides of the globe (for instance, Great Britain and Australia). Any sharp
distinction between long-distance and regional interdependence is therefore arbitrary, and there is no point in
deciding whether intermediate relationships-say, between Japan and India or between Egypt and South
Africa-would qualify. Yet globalism would be an odd word for proximate regional relationships. Globalization
refers to the shrinkage of distance on a large scale [see box on pages 110]. It can be contrasted with
localization, nationalization, or regionalization.
Some examples may help. Islam's rapid diffusion from Arabia across Asia to what is now Indonesia was a
clear instance of globalization, but the initial movement of Hinduism across the Indian subcontinent was not.
Ties among the countries of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum qualify as multicontinental
interdependence, because these countries include the Americas as well as Asia and Australia; but ties among
members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations are regional.
Globalism does not imply universality. At the turn of the millennium, more than a quarter of the American
population used the World Wide Web compared with one hundredth of I percent of the population of South
Asia. Most people in the world today do not have telephones; hundreds of millions live as peasants in remote
villages with only slight connections to world markets or the global flow of ideas. Indeed, globalization is
accompanied by increasing gaps, in many respects, between the rich and the poor. It implies neither
homogenization nor equity.
Interdependence and globalism are both Multidimensional phenomena. All too often, they are defined in
strictly economic terms, as if the world economy defined globalism. But there are several, equally important
forms of globalism:
* Economic globalism involves long,distance flows of goods, services, and capital, as well as the information
and perceptions that accompany market exchange. It also involves the organization of the processes that are
linked to these flows, such as the organization of low-wage production in Asia for the U.S. and European
markets.
* Military globalism refers to long-distance networks of interdependence in which force, and the threat or
promise of force, are employed. A good example of military globalism is the "balance of terror" between the
United States and the Soviet Union during the cold war. The two countries' strategic interdependence was
acute and well recognized. Not only did it produce world-straddling alliances, but either side could have used
intercontinental missiles to destroy the other within 30 minutes. Their interdependence was distinctive not
because it was totally new, but because the scale and speed of the potential conflict arising from it were so
enormous.
* Environmental globalism refers to the long-distance transport of materials in the atmosphere or oceans, or of
biological substances such as pathogens or genetic materials, that affect human health and wellbeing. The
depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer as a result of ozone-depleting chemicals is an example of
environmental globalism, as is the spread of the AIDS virus from west equatorial Africa around the world
since the end of the 1970s. Some environmental globalism may be entirely natural, but much of the recent
Page 2 of 10
Document
change has been induced by human activity.
* Social and cultural globalism involves the movement of ideas, information, images, and people (who, of
course, carry ideas and information with them). Examples include the movement of religions or the diffusion of
scientific knowledge. An important facet of social globalism involves the imitation of one society's practices
and institutions by others: what some sociologists refer to as "isomorphism." Often, however, social globalism
has followed military and economic globalism. ideas, information, and people follow armies and economic
flows, and in doing so, transform societies and markets. At its most profound level, social globalism affects the
consciousness of individuals and their attitudes toward culture, politics, and personal identity. Indeed, social
and cultural globalism interacts with other types of globalism, because military, environmental, and economic
activity convey information and generate ideas, which may then flow across geographical and political
boundaries. In the current era, as the growth of the Internet reduces costs and globalizes communications, the
flow of ideas is increasingly independent of other forms of globalization.
This division of globalism into separate dimensions is inevitably somewhat arbitrary. Nonetheless, it is useful
for analysis, because changes in the various dimensions of globalization do not necessarily occur
simultaneously. One can sensibly say, for instance, that economic globalization took place between
approximately 1850 and 1914, manifested in imperialism and increased trade and capital flows between
politically independent countries; and that such globalization was largely reversed between 1914 and 1945.
That is, economic globalism rose between 1850 and 1914 and fell between 1914 and 1945. However,
military globalism rose to new heights during the two world wars, as did many aspects of social globalism. The
worldwide influenza epidemic of 1918-19, which took 30 million lives, was propagated in part by the flows of
soldiers around the world. So did globalism decline or rise between 1914 and 1945? It depends on what
dimension of globalism one is examining.
CONTEMPORARY GLOBALISM
When people speak colloquially about globalization, they typically refer to recent increases in globalism. In this
context, comments such as "globalization is fundamentally new" make sense but are nevertheless misleading.
We prefer to speak of globalism as a phenomenon with ancient roots and of globalization as the process of
increasing globalism, now or in the past.
The issue is not how old globalism is, but rather how "thin" or "thick" it is at any given time. As an example of
"thin globalization," the Silk Road provided an economic and cultural link between ancient Europe and Asia,
but the route was plied by a small group of hardy traders, and the goods that were traded back and forth had
a direct impact primarily on a small (and relatively elite) stratum of consumers along the road. In contrast,
"thick" relations of globalization, as described by political scientist David Held and others, involve many
relationships that are intensive as well as extensive: long-distance flows that are large and continuous, affecting
the lives of many people. The operations of global financial markets today, for instance, affect people from
Peoria to Penang. Globalization is the process by which globalism becomes increasingly thick.
Globalism today is different from globalism of the 19th century, when European imperialism provided much of
its political structure, and higher transport and communications costs meant fewer people were directly
involved. But is there anything about globalism today that is fundamentally different from just 20 years ago? To
say that something is "fundamentally" different is always problematic, since absolute discontinuities do not exist
in human history. Every era builds on others, and historians can always find precursors for phenomena of the
present. journalist Thomas Friedman argues that contemporary globalization goes "farther, faster, deeper, and
cheaper . . ." The degree of thickening of globalism may be giving rise to three changes not just in degree but
Page 3 of 10
Document
in kind: increased density of networks, increased "institutional velocity," and increased transnational
participation.
Density of Networks
Economists use the term "network effects" to refer to situations where a product becomes more valuable once
many people use it-take, for example, the Internet. Joseph Stiglitz, former chief economist of the World Bank,
has argued that a knowledge-based economy generates "powerful spillover effects, often spreading like fire
and triggering further innovation and setting off chain reactions of new inventions." Moreover, as
interdependence and globalism have become thicker, systemic relationships among different networks have
become more important. There are more interconnect ions. Intensive economic interdependence affects social
and environmental interdependence; awareness of these connections in turn affects economic relationships.
For instance, the expansion of trade can generate industrial activity in countries with low environmental
standards, mobilizing environmental activists to carry their message to these newly industrializing but
environmentally lax countries. The resulting activities may affect environmental interdependence (for instance,
by reducing cross -boundary pollution) but may generate resentment ill the newly industrializing countries,
affecting social and economic relations.
The worldwide impact of the financial crisis that began in Thailand in July 1997 illustrates the extent of these
network interconnections. Unexpectedly, what first appeared as an isolated banking and currency crisis in a
small "emerging market" country had severe global effects. It generated financial panic elsewhere in Asia,
particularly in South Korea and Indonesia; prompted emergency meetings at the highest level of world finance
and huge "bail-out" packages orchestrated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF); and led eVentUally to
a widespread loss of confidence in emerging markets and the efficacy of international financial institutions.
Before that contagious loss of confidence was stemmed, Russia had defaulted oil its debt, and a U.S.based
hedge fund had to be rescued suddenly through it plan brokered by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Even after recovery had begun, Brazil required all IMF loan, Coupled with a devaluation, to avoid financial
collapse ill 1999.
Economic globalism is nothing new. Indeed, the relative magnitude of cross-border investment in 1997 was
not unprecedented. Capital markets were by some measures more integrated at the beginning than at the end
of the 20th century. The net outflow of capital from Great Britain in the four decades before 1914 averaged 5
percent of gross domestic product, compared with 2 to 3 percent for Japan over the last decade. The
financial crisis of 1997-99 was not the first to be global in scale: "Black Tuesday" on Wall Street in 1929 and
the collapse of Austria's Creditanstalt bank in 1931 triggered a worldwide financial crisis and depression. In
the 1970s, skyrocketing oil prices prompted the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to lend
surplus funds to developed nations, and banks in those countries made a profit by relending that money to
developing countries in Latin America and Africa (which needed the money to fund expansionary fiscal
policies). But the money dried up with the global recession of 1981-83: By late 1986, more than 40 countries
worldwide were mired in severe external debt.
But some features of the 1997-99 crisis distinguish it from previous ones. Most economists, governments, and
international financial institutions failed to anticipate the crisis, and complex new financial instruments made it
difficult to understand. Even countries that had pre, viously been praised for their sound economic policies and
performance were no less susceptible to the financial contagion triggered by speculative attacks and
unpredictable changes in market sentiment. The World Bank had recently published a report entitled "The
East Asian Miracle" (1993), and investment flows to Asia had risen rapidly to a new peak in 1997, remaining
high until the crisis hit. In December 1998, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan said: "I have
Page 4 of 10
Document
learned more about how this new international financial system works in the last 12 months than in the
previous 20 years." Sheer magnitude, complexity, and speed distinguish contemporary globalization from
earlier periods: Whereas the debt crisis of the 1980s was a slow-motion train wreck that took place over a
period of years, the Asian meltdown struck immediately and spread over a period of months.
The point is that the increasing thickness of globalism-the density of networks of interdependence-is not just a
difference in degree. Thickness means that different relationships of interdependence intersect more deeply at
more points. Hence, the effects of events in one geographical area, on one dimension, can have profound
effects in other geographical areas, on other dimensions. As in scientific theories of "chaos," and in weather
systems, small events in one place can have catalytic effects, so that their consequences later, and elsewhere,
are vast. Such systems are difficult to understand, and their effects are therefore often unpredictable.
Furthermore, when these are human systems, people are often hard at work trying to outwit others, to gain an
economic, social, or military advantage precisely by acting in unpredictable ways. As a result, globalism will
likely be accompanied by pervasive Uncertainty. Tthere will be continual competition between increased
complexity and uncertainty, and efforts by governments, market participants, and others to comprehend and
manage these increasingly complex interconnected systems.
Enlarge 200%
Enlarge 400%
May I interconnect you?
Globalization, therefore, does not merely affect governance; it is affected by governance. Frequent financial
crises of the magnitude of the crisis of 1997-99 could lead to popular movements to limit interdependence and
to a reversal of economic globalization. Chaotic uncertainty is too high a price for most people to pay for
somewhat higher average levels of prosperity. Unless some of its aspects can be effectively governed,
globalization may be unsustainable in its current form.
Institutional Velocity
The information revolution is at the heart of economic and social globalization. It has made possible the
transnational organization of work and the expansion of markets, thereby facilitating a new international
division of labor. As Adam Smith famously declared in The Wealth of Nations, "the division of labor is limited
by the extent of the market." Military globalism predated the information revolution, reaching its height during
World War 11 and the cold war; but the nature of military interdependence has been transformed by
information technology. The pollution that has contributed to environmental globalism has its sources in the
coal-oil-steelauto-chemical economy that was largely created between the middle of the 19th and 20th
centuries and has become globalized only recently; but the information revolution may have a major impact on
attempts to counter and reverse the negative effects of this form of globalism.
Sometimes these changes are incorrectly viewed in terms of the velocity of information flows. The biggest
change in velocity came with the steamship and especially the telegraph: The transatlantic cable of 1866
reduced the time of transmission of information between London and New York by over a week-hence, by a
Page 5 of 10
[ Pobierz całość w formacie PDF ]
  • zanotowane.pl
  • doc.pisz.pl
  • pdf.pisz.pl
  • klobuckfatima.xlx.pl